Decomposition and forecasting of tomato price in Bhopal district, Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

Vegetable crops are harder to forecast due to their highly perishable and seasonal nature. Madhya Pradesh recorded the maximum share of area and production under tomato in India at 12.14% and 13.33% respectively. This was followed by the share of Andhra Pradesh (6.79% and 11.13%) and Karnataka (8.31% and 10.17%). The analysis done in the Bhopal market shows, relatively higher arrivals in March with a seasonality index of 1.65 and average production at 3378.11 thousand MT. The lowest tomato arrival was found in June and July. The price of tomato touched its peak with seasonality indices of 1.80 and the wholesale price at Rs. 3688. A decomposition of tomato prices and arrivals indicates that arrivals showed a downward trend and price showed an upward trend over time. In May, tomato price is mostly less than the median value and the plot is skewed upwards, which shows right tail skewness, and in September, the price is more than the median value and the plot is skewed downwards, which shows left tail skewness. ACF show the sine wave pattern which indicate that there is a seasonal component in the data. On the basis of previous year data, we predicted that the price will decrease over the period and remain in the range of Rs 2000 to Rs 4500, respectively at the confidence interval of 80% and 95%, respectively.